Retirement Withdrawal Simulator (Drawdown)

Project the sustainability of your accumulated wealth in retirement. Simulate how many years your money will last based on the portfolio yield, inflation, and your withdrawal strategy (fixed, real, or 4% rule).

Quick Scenarios:

4% Rule (Conservative) Fixed Real Withdrawal ($5,000/month) Fixed Nominal Withdrawal (Aggressive)

Wealth Configuration

Initial Accumulated Wealth

Total amount accumulated for retirement.

Withdrawal Strategy

Initial Monthly Withdrawal Amount

Withdrawal to be made in the first month.

Annual Withdrawal Rate

% p.a.

Initial percentage withdrawn per year (divided into 12 monthly withdrawals).

Gross Return Rate of the Portfolio

% p.a.

Expected nominal average yield of the investments.

Estimated Inflation (Average IPCA)

% p.a.

Annual inflation rate for adjustment and real calculation.

Simulation Term

years

Projected time of enjoying the wealth.

Fill in the data and click on Simulate Drawdown to start the withdrawal projection.

Safe

Sustainability Index

Never

Capital Depletion

$0.00

Final Remaining Wealth

$0.00

Total Withdrawn (Nominal)

$0.00

Generated Earnings

$0.00

Average Real Withdrawal

Wealth and Withdrawal Projection (Adjusted for Inflation)

Annual Drawdown Evolution and Balance Table

Year	Initial Investment	Real Withdrawal	Nominal Withdrawal	Generated Earnings	Final Wealth

What is Retirement Drawdown and How to Plan Your Withdrawals?

The wealth accumulation phase for retirement is only half of the financial journey. The other half, often neglected, is the drawdown phase (disinvestment or enjoyment). It consists of converting the accumulated wealth into a stable monthly income, ensuring that the wealth does not run out before your life expectancy.

Classic Withdrawal Strategies

There are different approaches to planning your retirement withdrawals. This calculator simulates three of the most commonly used strategies in the global financial market:

Fixed Real Withdrawal: You define an initial withdrawal amount (e.g., $4,000). Each month, this amount is adjusted for inflation (IPCA), maintaining your exact purchasing power. It is the ideal strategy for those seeking absolute consumption stability, although it increases the risk of capital depletion during market downturns.
Fixed Nominal Withdrawal: You withdraw a fixed identical amount every month (e.g., $4,000). The risk of capital depletion decreases, but your purchasing power will be aggressively eroded by inflation over 10, 20, or 30 years.
The 4% Rule: Developed in the classic Trinity Study, it proposes withdrawing 4% of the accumulated wealth in the first year of retirement (divided by 12 months). In subsequent years, you do not recalculate 4%, but rather update the previous year's amount by inflation. Historically, this rule has proven to have a high probability of maintaining the portfolio's sustainability for over 30 years in various economic scenarios.

How Does Portfolio Return and Inflation Impact Sustainability?

If the nominal return on your investment portfolio is 9% and the average inflation is 4.5%, your real interest rate (calculated using the Fisher formula) is approximately 4.3% per year. If your annual withdrawal rate is higher than this real net rate, your wealth will inevitably enter a process of consuming the principal, leading to future depletion. This simulation helps map the exact point of sustainability equilibrium for your retirement.

Frequently Asked Questions

The nominal yield is the gross rate generated by your investment portfolio (e.g., 10% per year). The real yield is the return rate above inflation, i.e., discounting the depreciation of money (IPCA). In drawdown, the sustainability of income depends exclusively on the real yield, as the withdrawal must keep pace with inflation to maintain your standard of living in retirement.

It is the risk of suffering significant market downturns in the early years of your retirement (the beginning of the drawdown). Even if the long-term average return is high, monthly withdrawals made during a bear market force the sale of undervalued assets, drastically accelerating the depletion of the principal and preventing the portfolio from recovering in the future.

Yes, but with caution. The original rule was designed with US market data. In Brazil, we have historically higher real interest rates (via Treasury Direct), which favors the investor. However, our volatility and inflation are also considerably higher. Therefore, experts recommend working with a slightly lower initial withdrawal rate (e.g., 3.5% to 4.0%) and reviewing the plan annually.